A transcript of a press conference given by the Prime Minister at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Trinidad on 27 November 2009.
Read the transcript
Prime Minister:
Look, today is about climate change, and today there will be a series of proposals put forward by us about how we can resolve the impasse on climate change. The essential problem is to persuade developing countries that they must contribute towards the reduction in carbon. We must help them finance this. But at the same time the richer countries have got to make commitments that are realistic and ambitious about how they will cut carbon in their economies.
The European Union has said it will reduce carbon by 30% on 1990 levels; Japan has said 25%; Australia has said 24%. We’re bringing together all the figures that people have given us. Russia, 25%; Norway, 40%. President Obama said this week he will cut by 17% on 2005 levels, and by 2030, 33% on 1990 levels. So these are serious and ambitious offers. They are matched by those now being set by major developing countries. Korea has announced an unconditional 30% over what’s called ‘Business as usual’. Brazil, 36-39%. Indonesia, 26-41% with international support. These are major contributions to the global reduction in emissions, and we’ve got to remember that while the major cause of high emissions is the activities of the richest countries over many many years, 90% of future growth in emissions will come from developing countries, and therefore we’ve got to have a plan to make sure their emissions can come down.
What I’m going to propose today is that we build on the idea of a compact between rich and poor countries. I’ve said - the European Union has said - that this could involve £100 billion by 2020. We have also said that you can’t wait until 2020. So what I feel that the developing countries need to know is that we are absolutely serious, that we would start now, that we wouldn’t even make the formal date of the treaty coming into force the date for finance to start flowing.
And what I’m proposing today is a Copenhagen launch fund. It would start in 2010. It would be $10 billion per annum by 2012. We would make our contribution to that fund. I believe the European Union is ready to make its contribution. We have indications that America is ready to make its contribution to this fund. Half of it should go to adaptation; that is, helping the poorest countries adapt to climate change. That includes money for strengthening sea and flood defences as well. The other 50% would go to mitigation, and that would help countries deal with deforestation, for example, and with building new energy sources that are more efficient.
The funding for mitigation should be based on two principles. Developing countries should provide part of the finance themselves, and we should provide finance governed by payment by results. So the more carbon you reduce, the more tons of greenhouse gas has been saved, the more money a developing country would get from that fund. So it’s a payment by results fund.
Now I believe that the launch of this fund, and a trajectory that then takes us towards 2020, provides the possibility for developing countries to make commitments about what they would do on carbon; developed countries showing that they are serious about moving this forward, and it’s not just rhetoric about the future, it’s not just plans for the long-term - it is immediate action now. So the Copenhagen launch fund would be the faster start to making a climate change agreement a reality; people seeing a difference immediately, even before the treaty came into effect. And I believe that once the commonwealth countries hear that this is a possibility, then their willingness to be part of this contract between rich and poor countries, to tackle climate change, will be more assured.
So, basically, today we’re having a discussion. One of the discussions is outside the commonwealth - it includes Mr Sarkozy. At the formal commonwealth meeting we have all the commonwealth countries, but we also have coming to this meeting the UN Secretary General Ban, who leads the climate change talks; Prime Minister Rasmussen, who’s coordinating the talks in Denmark, which start, as you know, in a few days’ time. We also have the Secretary General of the climate change negotiations themselves. So we have all the leading figures here, to talk about what they can do to bridge this gap, which is essentially a gap between rich and poor countries.
Rich countries have got to make sure that they are making a commitment to reducing their emissions; they have got to make a financial commitment to helping the poorest countries reduce their emissions. The poorest countries have got to recognise that most of the carbon emissions in future years will come from the poorest countries and they need to be part of this process. As I say, half will go to adapt countries to the reality of climate change, half to mitigating climate change. I think this is a bold offer, in which Britain will play its part. It takes you from 2010 to 2012, and then we will talk at Copenhagen about the trajectory to our ambitions for 2020, which is for the £100 billion figure which the European Union has endorsed.
Question:
Can you just tell us about the relationship between developed and developing countries in this financial package - what sort of percentage do you expect developing countries to be contributing, and just how that sort of relationship works.
Prime Minister:
We don’t have any announcements from some of the larger developing countries yet. We’ve had a first offer tabled from China. I’m obviously talking to Prime Minister Singh of India today. Until we have their figures, obviously, it’s very difficult to calculate the total amount that will come. But we are trying to reduce the gigatons of emissions. There are figures that have been given for 2020 - what would happen if it was simply ‘business as usual’, and figures that we are looking at about what is necessary to get us on a trajectory to reducing carbon emissions by 50% as a whole world by 2050, and 80% coming from the developed countries. So that’s where we are at the moment. But remember, the carbon emissions payments that we will make to the developing countries will be payment by results, so that they have to deliver to get these payments.
Question:
Can you say what the British contribution would be, to the launch fund?
Prime Minister:
The British contribution to the $10 billion figure would be roughly about £800 million - for which we’ve already budgeted. We’ve put money in the budget thinking that this would be the result.
Question:
Is that for the period up to 2012?
Prime Minister:
Up to 2012, yes.
Question:
Is this developing what was agreed at the European Council on the 29th October, when I think there was a €7 billion fast-track fund?
Prime Minister:
This is us putting what we know America, Europe, Australia and some of the other countries might be prepared to support, into a new proposal that deals with the issues of adaptation and mitigation, but actually changes the proposal in the sense that we have a payment by results mechanism. So if you cut your carbon emissions, you get a payment, if you’re one of the least-developing countries; if you don’t cut your carbon emissions, obviously, you won’t qualify for that payment. And what I envisage is countries bringing forward their emissions programmes and submitting them, obviously, to a green fund, that would pay money to them. So it would lead to a green fund.
What we’ve had over the last few months is proposals from Mexico, that people are more-or-less willing to accept, that the least developing countries are going to be the biggest beneficiaries of any funding. So a country like China would not expect to get net monies from these. What we’ve had is a proposal from Norway about how we make carbon emissions trading work. What we’ve had then is a proposal from us that tries to bring together all the different elements of this - adaptation, mitigation, what happens in the short term, what happens in the longer term, what is your trajectory from now to 2020 in particular.
Now we’ve had these big announcements from some of the richer countries and some announcements from some of the emerging market countries, we’ve now got to give the developing countries an incentive, and they are represented as the majority of people here today. And I think the idea of this launch fund, which could start before the treaty is even in being, is an indication of our determination to help the poorer countries come to terms with the need to make big adaptations and also, at the same time, to change the way they do things. A lot of this money would go to deforestation, and stopping it.
Question:
Just on deforestation: there has been one suggestion that, although it’s clear what the intent of this is, it could have the effect of blackmail - ‘Give us the money or we’ll cut down some more forest’, or whatever. Because obviously it’s a relatively small amount of money compared to -
Prime Minister:
There’s three big forest areas around the world. There’s the Amazon, the African and the Indonesian forests. Any money that would be provided for aforestation, or to stop deforestation, would have to be monitored by satellite. One of the big issues in forestry is how you monitor what is actually happening; how you prevent illegal logging even though there’s been governmental promises not to cut forests. So the satellite navigation systems are going to be very important to the developing of a forest policy. Either you’re planting more forests, of course, which is obvious, you can monitor that; or that what is agreed to be protected is actually protected. And I think we’re getting better means by which we can have satellite observance of what’s going on. I’ve been involved in the African project, in the Congo basin - of course the issue is, with so many different countries involved, how can you stop illegal logging.
Question:
No, sorry, more in the sense that saving forests is linked directly to getting a payment - if you don’t get the payment, you don’t save the forest.
Prime Minister:
Forestry is 20% of emissions, so you really are dealing with a very critical area here. Maybe Michael Jacobs would talk more about it, because he’s involved in more detail in this, but maybe you could talk later to Adam there. But the specifics are: we would have to nominate those areas that were part of this grant in aid, so to speak, and equally we’d have to monitor it very closely.
Question:
Prime Minister, just on a matter back at home - there’s a lot of concern about Dubai delaying debt repayments that has caused a lot of turmoil on the markets that is continuing today. People are afraid that we’re going to return to the kind of financial chaos that we’ve seen in the past. What can you say to reassure them, and what is different this time, if anything?
Prime Minister:
I think the world economy has put in place mechanisms by which, when a problem starts in one country, we’re in a far better position to monitor it and to gauge the effects. I actually talked to the people from Dubai earlier this week, for example, the project that Dubai has for developing ports in Britain - they fully intend to go ahead. I think the world has better means of monitoring what’s happening, and making sure the after effects are minimised. While it is a setback, I think we’ll find that this is not on the scale of previous problems that we’ve dealt with.
Question:
But will it delay global recovery?
Prime Minister:
I think global recovery, if I may be blunt, has depended on monetary action and fiscal stimulus. There is £5 trillion of fiscal stimulus at the world economy - either had or about to have. That is what is bringing the economy up. The monetary easing, with low interest rates, and with quantitative easing in Britain and America - these have been the most important things in giving the world economy a boost. You’re obviously going to have setbacks, with a bank here or an organisation there that has had problems, but I do believe the world has got a better way of monitoring what is happening and measuring the effects of this, so that we can be sure that, despite setbacks, we are moving forward.
Question:
What sort of assurances did they give you that they would go ahead with the [Indistinct]
Prime Minister:
The problem essentially for the Dubai ports has actually been issues related to planning in Britain. So this project which is, a potential project for Britain that would bring a large number of jobs, has obviously got to go through a number of hurdles. We published a statement on national ports, and how we deal with applications for big national infrastructure projects only a few days ago. My view is this is one of the projects that is an important one for Britain - and obviously there’s other commercial operators wishing to do things as well, and we’re very happy to look at it. But obviously Britain needs new investment in ports.
Question:
How exposed do you think Britain’s banks are in Dubai? Could that be a problem for some of them?
Prime Minister:
Look, you’re dealing with one set of issues related to Dubai. Dubai is part of the UAE, remember - is part of a wider enterprise. I think we’re going to have issues like this at different points, at different times, because of the fallout from what’s happened over the last two years. But my own view is that the world financial system is stronger now, and able to deal with problems that arise.
Question:
Can I just ask you about climate finance? Two questions: firstly, is this launch fund just public money? Because I think the longer-term, €100 billion is going to involve private money?
Prime Minister:
It’s public money. Look, what we’re trying to do is make sure that a Copenhagen agreement takes place. I said last night - there will be no Copenhagen agreement unless we can find a solution on finance. The financial issues essentially revolve around the ability of poorer countries to be part of a climate change initiative. If they do not have the money to transfer their energies into doing pro, if you like, climate change, pro-carbon reduction matters, then they will not be able to do them.
If we are able to help them do so, on this 50-50 agreement for mitigation, then they will be able to make big changes. Given that so much of the reductions in carbon are going to have to come from the developing countries, this is a sensible agreement for us as well. So it would start immediately; it would be $10 billion by 2012. This is a very big offer. And it would be on a trajectory we would expect to rise towards 2020. Therefore I think this will be welcomed by the developing countries. I hope that our discussion today will show that people understand that we are making an offer. It costs us money, but it also costs the richest countries money right across the board. I think the European Union will be up for this; I think America will want to support it. Indeed, these figures, I think, will be similar to the ones that America and Europe will want to bring forward.
Question:
Do you expect President Sarkozy to back this today, when he speaks?
Prime Minister:
I believe that President Sarkozy is supportive of this, yes.
Question:
Does the support amongst commonwealth leaders make a deal in Copenhagen easier to get?
Prime Minister:
Absolutely. This is one of the routes to Copenhagen. From London to Trinidad and Tobago to Copenhagen may seem a roundabout journey, but this is one of the routes to Copenhagen - to make sure that we can get a Copenhagen agreement that works. Obviously we’re waiting for a number of countries to make their offers. We came in early; Europe came in early. Europe’s to be congratulated for coming in early, but now we’re at a point where I think the developing countries will respond to the willingness of us and the richer countries to say, ‘We are ready to make an offer’. That must include a financial offer. So this is a, if you like - for all the difficulties we’ve had in the Copenhagen talks, it seems to me, in the run up to Copenhagen, this will kick-start what we’re trying to do.
Question:
In your list of countries that have put good offers on the table, it’s missing one quite important commonwealth country. Are you disappointed that Canada doesn’t seem to be in the place that you and Australia are in?
Prime Minister:
Well Canada was part of the G20 discussions, and Canada was part of the G8 discussions, and obviously Canada will be part of the discussions today. But I believe that, now that America has made an offer, Canada will also want to make an offer.
Question:
Just going back to an issue back home - there’s a lot of concern about the advance of Basildon and Thurrock, the NHS trust, in particular the fact that the NHS watchdog gave the trust a good rating last month? Are you concerned about that? What reassurance can you offer people that the watchdog is actually doing its job properly?
Prime Minister:
We’ve always got to look at these things, we’ve always got to be vigilant, and we’ve always got to monitor standards and obviously safety in hospitals. I do believe that Andy Burnham is making a statement on this today, so I think, on the detail, I shall respond after he’s given the detail. Any other points? Okay. Thank you.
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